Aotearoa – New ZealandNew polls added:Talbot Mills (1–11 Aug 2026) — 14 Aug · 1 News–Verian (8–11 Aug 2026) — 12 Aug
Poll of Polls
A rolling average of published opinion polls ahead of the 2026 New Zealand general election, built from 115 surveys since the 2023 election.
Pollsters included
Dot color is accuracy vs. the actual 2023 result (green = high, amber = moderate, red = lower, gray = no 2023 pre-election poll on record). Hover a pollster for its exact error.
Recency
Current poll of polls
Labour
30.3%
National
29.9%
Green
10.8%
NZ First
10.0%
ACT
7.9%
TOP
6.4%
Te Pāti Māori
2.0%
Others
1.7%
Average of the most recent poll from each selected pollster active in the last 60 days (5 pollsters).
Trend
- National
- Labour
- Green
- ACT
- NZ First
- Te Pāti Māori
- TOP
- Others
Blocs
- National + ACT + NZ First
- Labour + Green + Te Pāti Māori
- The Opportunities Party
Combined party-vote share, not a seat projection — MMP's thresholds and electorate seats mean vote share and seat share can diverge.
Seats
⚠ Only 6 of 71 electorate seats specified — 65 unaccounted for (their held-by party isn't set, so they default to that party's list-only entitlement).
123
seats
- National + ACT + NZ First
- Labour + Green + Te Pāti Māori
- The Opportunities Party
62 seats needed for a majority. No bloc reaches a majority alone at this snapshot.
Projected seats (out of 123) from today's poll of polls, using New Zealand's modified Sainte-Laguë MMP allocation. Assumes today's electorate seats are unchanged at the next election — see the methodology note below.
| Party | Vote % | Electorate | List | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 30.3 | 0 | 38 | 38 |
| National | 29.9 | 0 | 37 | 37 |
| Green | 10.8 | 0 | 13 | 13 |
| NZ First | 10.0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| ACT | 7.9 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| TOP | 6.4 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 2.0 | 5 | 0 | 5* |
Modified Sainte-Laguë allocation (New Zealand's actual MMP method) over today's poll of polls. A party needs 5% party vote or an electorate seat to qualify. There are 71 electorates in total; the built-in default only itemizes ACT holding Epsom and Te Pāti Māori holding 5 of 7 Māori electorates (won 6 of 7 in 2023, minus Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's May 2026 departure) — the remaining electorates sit with National and Labour in reality but aren't itemized, since there's no electorate-level polling to derive that from (“Edit electorate assumptions” above shows exactly how many of the 71 are currently accounted for, and lets you fill in the rest). * marks an overhang seat. Treat as indicative, not an official projection.
Polls (116 of 116)
| Date | Pollster | Sample | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | OTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 847 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 2.7 |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills | – | 29.0 | 34.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | – |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.0 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 1.1 |
| 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 32.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 |
| 19 Jul 2026 | Talbot Mills | – | 31.0 | 33.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | – |
| 9 Jul 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 28.7 | 34.0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 |
| 5 Jul 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| 21 Jun 2026 | Roy Morgan | 891 | 31.0 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 29.0 | 32.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 |
| 11 Jun 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,038 | 29.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 2.0 | – | 3.0 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 29.0 | 34.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | – |
| 8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.1 | 32.2 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 24 May 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 30.5 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| 10 May 2026 | Talbot Mills | – | 29.0 | 36.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 7 May 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.0 | 31.9 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Roy Morgan | 887 | 25.5 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 29.0 | 36.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | – |
| 15 Apr 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 30.0 | 37.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.8 | 33.4 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Roy Morgan | 872 | 26.5 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| 20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.8 | 35.6 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | – |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.4 | 34.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31.0 | 30.0 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| 12 Feb 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,039 | 30.0 | 37.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | – | 3.0 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 34.0 | 32.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.3 | 34.1 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 4.2 |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,087 | 31.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 3.0 | – | – |
| 22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 31.9 | 35.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.5 | 34.4 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 3.8 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Roy Morgan | 859 | 33.0 | 32.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 30.0 | 38.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | – | 4.0 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.0 | 31.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6.0 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 36.0 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4 |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 33.0 | 28.0 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| 10 Nov 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 33.0 | 38.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 2.4 | – | – |
| 6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.2 | 33.3 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5.1 |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Roy Morgan | 857 | 32.0 | 30.5 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| 10 Oct 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,097 | 29.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | – | – |
| 8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 34.0 | 32.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | – | 2.0 |
| 5 Oct 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 31.2 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| 21 Sept 2025 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 12 Sept 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 31.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | – | – |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.1 | 33.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Roy Morgan | 873 | 29.0 | 34.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 10 Aug 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 32.0 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | – |
| 6 Aug 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5 Aug 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| 27 Jul 2025 | Roy Morgan | 832 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,090 | 32.0 | 35.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.8 | – | – |
| 6 Jul 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.9 | 31.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 22 Jun 2025 | Roy Morgan | 812 | 32.0 | 28.5 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 32.0 | 34.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | – | 4.0 |
| 9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 34.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.2 |
| 30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 30.7 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 28 May 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 3.9 |
| 25 May 2025 | Roy Morgan | 799 | 31.5 | 29.0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.6 | 33.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 31.0 | 28.5 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 29.8 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.9 | 32.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | – |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 32.5 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| 10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 4.4 | – | – |
| 4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.6 | 34.1 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 30.5 | 29.0 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 |
| 4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 33.0 | 34.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | – | – |
| 26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 31.0 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 37.0 | 29.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 8.3 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| 28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | – | 31.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | – | – |
| 27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 34.0 | 31.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | – | – |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 28.5 | 28.0 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | – | 34.0 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | – | – |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 31.0 | 29.0 | 14.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| 9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 37.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| 7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 22 Sept 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 37.5 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10 Sept 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.0 | 26.7 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 10 Sept 2024 | Talbot Mills | – | 37.0 | 32.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | – |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 36.0 | 26.5 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 38.0 | 30.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 32.5 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35.0 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38.0 | 29.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 33.5 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | – | 35.0 | 32.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30.0 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| 30 Apr 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | – | 34.0 | 33.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | – | – |
| 24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36.0 | 30.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| 4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38.0 | 23.0 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | – | 38.0 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | – | – | – |
| 5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4.0 |
| 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38.0 | 28.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | – | 38.0 | 29.0 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – |
| 7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 5.0 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38.0 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41.0 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | – |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36.0 | 22.0 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| 5 Dec 2023 | Curia | – | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.0 | – | 4.6 |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21.0 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.0 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | – | 38.1 | 26.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 |