Pollster Reliability

Mean absolute error (percentage points) between each pollster's final poll before the 2023 general election and the actual 2023 result, across parties both report. Lower is more accurate. Pollsters with no pre-election poll within 90 days of the 2023 election are omitted (insufficient data), not rated as unreliable.

Actual 2023 election result (the reference point)

National 38.08%Labour 26.92%Green 11.61%ACT 8.64%NZ First 6.09%Te Pāti Māori 3.08%TOP 2.22%

Talbot Mills

High accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 28 Sept 2023. Mean absolute error across 7 parties: 0.33pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	38%	38.08%	0.08pp
Labour	27%	26.92%	0.08pp
Green	13%	11.61%	1.39pp
ACT	9%	8.64%	0.36pp
NZ First	6.4%	6.09%	0.31pp
Te Pāti Māori	3.1%	3.08%	0.02pp
TOP	2.3%	2.22%	0.08pp

1 News–Verian

High accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 10 Oct 2023. Mean absolute error across 7 parties: 0.92pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	37%	38.08%	1.08pp
Labour	28%	26.92%	1.08pp
Green	14%	11.61%	2.39pp
ACT	9%	8.64%	0.36pp
NZ First	6%	6.09%	0.09pp
Te Pāti Māori	1.7%	3.08%	1.38pp
TOP	2.3%	2.22%	0.08pp

Taxpayers' Union–Curia

High accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 4 Oct 2023. Mean absolute error across 7 parties: 0.96pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	35.9%	38.08%	2.18pp
Labour	27.9%	26.92%	0.98pp
Green	10.6%	11.61%	1.01pp
ACT	9.1%	8.64%	0.46pp
NZ First	6.9%	6.09%	0.81pp
Te Pāti Māori	3.7%	3.08%	0.62pp
TOP	2.9%	2.22%	0.68pp

The Post/Freshwater Strategy

High accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 30 Aug 2023. Mean absolute error across 6 parties: 0.99pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	36%	38.08%	2.08pp
Labour	26%	26.92%	0.92pp
Green	12%	11.61%	0.39pp
ACT	11%	8.64%	2.36pp
NZ First	6%	6.09%	0.09pp
Te Pāti Māori	3%	3.08%	0.08pp

RNZ–Reid Research

Moderate accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 10 Oct 2023. Mean absolute error across 7 parties: 1.25pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	34.5%	38.08%	3.58pp
Labour	27.5%	26.92%	0.58pp
Green	14.9%	11.61%	3.29pp
ACT	8.8%	8.64%	0.16pp
NZ First	6.8%	6.09%	0.71pp
Te Pāti Māori	2.7%	3.08%	0.38pp
TOP	2.2%	2.22%	0.02pp

Roy Morgan

Lower accuracy in 2023

Final poll before the 2023 election: 8 Oct 2023. Mean absolute error across 7 parties: 2.5pp.

Party	Polled	Actual	Error
National	30.5%	38.08%	7.58pp
Labour	26%	26.92%	0.92pp
Green	15%	11.61%	3.39pp
ACT	11.5%	8.64%	2.86pp
NZ First	7.5%	6.09%	1.41pp
Te Pāti Māori	3%	3.08%	0.08pp
TOP	3.5%	2.22%	1.28pp

Not yet rated

Curia

No poll from this house was found on the 2023 opinion-polling page at all.

Labour–Talbot Mills

Closest pre-election poll on record was 710 days before the 2023 election (2021-11-03), beyond the 90-day cutoff for a meaningful "final poll" comparison.