Poll Timeline Every party's poll-of-polls trend from the 2023 election result to the most recent poll, with key events marked along the way. Press play, or drag the scrubber to explore.
14 Oct 2023
Starting point: the 2023 election result
0% 9% 18% 27% 36% 45% Oct 23 Apr 24 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26 Oct 26 27 Nov 2023 — Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. 3 Dec 2023 — Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. 30 Jan 2024 — James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. 10 Mar 2024 — Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. 30 May 2024 — Budget 2024 is delivered. 19 Nov 2024 — Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill. 22 May 2025 — Budget 2025 is delivered. 31 May 2025 — David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. 6 Sept 2025 — Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. 10 Nov 2025 — Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori. 16 Nov 2025 — Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party. 5 Dec 2025 — Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori by the High Court. 21 Jan 2026 — Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. 2 Mar 2026 — The Strait of Hormuz is closed as part of the Iran war, causing an incoming fuel crisis affecting New Zealand. 21 Apr 2026 — Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a party leadership vote called by himself. 11 May 2026 — Mariameno Kapa-Kingi exits Te Pāti Māori to start Te Tai Tokerau Party. 28 May 2026 — Budget 2026 is delivered. 12 Aug 2026 — Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a second party leadership vote. 2 Oct 2026 — Leaders of the GRN, ACT, NZF, TPM, OPP debate in the Stuff Kingmaker's Debate. National 38.1% Labour 26.9% Green 11.6% ACT 8.6% NZ First 6.1% Te Pāti Māori 3.1% TOP 2.2% Others 3.4% Pause
Party Leader Support Each party leader's preferred-Prime-Minister trend, same rolling-average construction as the chart above, from the earliest recorded poll to today.
6 Nov 2023
Starting point: the earliest recorded preferred-PM poll
0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% Nov 23 May 24 Oct 24 Apr 25 Oct 25 Apr 26 Oct 26 27 Nov 2023 — Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. 3 Dec 2023 — Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. 30 Jan 2024 — James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. 10 Mar 2024 — Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. 30 May 2024 — Budget 2024 is delivered. 19 Nov 2024 — Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill. 22 May 2025 — Budget 2025 is delivered. 31 May 2025 — David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. 6 Sept 2025 — Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. 10 Nov 2025 — Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori. 16 Nov 2025 — Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party. 5 Dec 2025 — Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori by the High Court. 21 Jan 2026 — Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces that the election will be held on 7 November 2026. 2 Mar 2026 — The Strait of Hormuz is closed as part of the Iran war, causing an incoming fuel crisis affecting New Zealand. 21 Apr 2026 — Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a party leadership vote called by himself. 11 May 2026 — Mariameno Kapa-Kingi exits Te Pāti Māori to start Te Tai Tokerau Party. 28 May 2026 — Budget 2026 is delivered. 12 Aug 2026 — Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a second party leadership vote. 2 Oct 2026 — Leaders of the GRN, ACT, NZF, TPM, OPP debate in the Stuff Kingmaker's Debate. Luxon 33.0% Hipkins 18.0% Swarbrick 6.3% Seymour 4.0% Peters 5.0% Pause
Prefer a table? See the full poll history on the Poll of Polls page, or the preferred-PM history on Approval Ratings . Source data: Wikipedia — Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election . Last refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
Created by Ilan Boock · labo49@gmail.com
Aotearoa – New Zealand